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In [[statistics]], the '''reference class problem''' is the problem of deciding what class to use when calculating the [[probability]] applicable to a particular case. For example, to estimate the probability of an aircraft crashing, one might use the frequency of crashes of all aircraft, of this make of aircraft, of aircraft flown by this company in the last ten years, etc. Any case is a member of very many classes, in which the frequency of the attribute of interest (such as crashing) differs, and the reference class problem discusses which is the most appropriate to use.
Whether you are in the property market seeking residential, commercial, industrial or mixeddevelopment properties. Right here at LNP, we have now all the new property launches which covers the whole of Singapore. Every of the property launch listed here are effectively documented with comprehensive and up-to-date information  [http://menofpurposekenya.org/?option=com_k2&view=itemlist&task=user&id=43313 http://menofpurposekenya.org/?option=com_k2&view=itemlist&task=user&id=43313] & details.<br><br>Dennis Wee Group spokesman Lee Sze Teck said those who use up to 60 per cent of their monthly revenue to service their house loans are typically incomes first rate wages and have a very good credit rating. Engineer James Leow, 26, had plans to buy a 5-room resale flat near his dad and mom' place in Ang Mo Kio this yr. This measure will convey some sanity to the entire industrial market," stated Mr Douglas Foo, chief govt of Sakae Sushi, which bought its personal 200,000 sq ft industrial constructing in Paya Lebar iPark in the mid-2000s. More than 10 million sq ft of multi-user industrial area is also expected to go available on the market within the subsequent few years. If they do not comply with this rule, they are going to be hit with a hefty extra tax in the form of the ABSD. Skypark Residences EC<br><br>Non-residential buildings and land will continue to be taxed at 10%. The proprietor-occupier tax rates don't apply to non-residential buildings or land even when you've got bought the properties for your own use/ occupation. The brand new tax obligation will hit as a result of the Mortgage Forgiveness Debt Aid Act expires on the finish of the year. The 2007 regulation was handed to save lots of struggling householders from getting whacked twice, first by the sagging housing market and second by the Inside Revenue Service. Its expiration may push extra folks to stay in houses worth less than their mortgages, slowing the housing market's recovery. Balestier / Geylang (D12-14) New Freehold B1 Mild Industrial at Kallang Pudding Three Deaths Linked To Listeria-Tainted Rescolina Ricotta<br><br>Some outdated-college physicians nonetheless think that drugs are the one approach to make us wholesome. What in regards to the side effects? Would not it make extra sense to wash up somebody's way of life first and if the health concern persists, then think about medicine? You would suppose it's common sense, however maybe not to all. If you can't already tell, this can be a topic I am very captivated with. There's a latest New England Journal of Medication article that helps us all - including the skeptics about life-style modifications - to see that life-style modifications are in actual fact beneficial for our health. To say that a healthy diet and train life-style is unimportant is completely ludicrous once we as health care practitioners have the job of instituting well being measures for our sufferers.<br><br>Singaporeans have traditionally been averse to wealth redistribution, partly due to the concept that focussing on equalising life alternatives is sufficient. When property taxes have been abolished in 2008, Singapore became one of many few nations that doesn't have capital features (together with property) or estate taxes. Consider the concept Singapore wants many rich billionaires to be able to seed and grow companies. This misunderstands the character of entrepreneurship. Henry Ford and Invoice Gates got here from humble origins to construct large corporations. Their descendants, billionaires, have not created anything similar. Significantly better for Singapore to foster a pleasant funding local weather and an open, innovative surroundings. New Launch 2014 in March / April Lush Acres EC<br><br>One Balmoral – Ultra High Finish Freehold Condominium To Match Your Status! One Balmoral is a ultra excessive end freehold condominium located at One Balmoral Highway. One Balmoral A development by Hong Leong Holdings Limited, consisting of 91 models in Oceanfront Suites, irresistible pricing for a 946 leasehold property with magnificent sea view. Dreaming of basking and feeling the warmth of pure sunlight is now only a click on away. Oceanfront Suites - Seaside living not wants to remain an unattainable Ang Mo Kio Cluster House is launching tentatively in April 2013. Click right here to register your curiosity for Ang Mo Kio Cluster Home now! Ang Mo Kio Cluster Home is a uncommon freehold strata landed growth along Ang Mo Kio Avenue Scholar's boarding home or hostel<br><br>Achievers are all the time the first to check new applied sciences & providers that may assist them increase their sales. When property guru first began, many agents didn't imagine in it until they began hearing other colleagues getting incredible outcomes. Most brokers needs to see proof first, before they dare to take step one in making an attempt. These are sometimes the late comers or late adopters. There is a motive why high achievers are heading the wave or heading the best way. Simply because they try new things forward of others. The rest simply follow after!
 
More formally, many arguments in statistics take the form of a [[statistical syllogism]]:
 
#<math>X</math> proportion of <math>F</math> are <math>G</math>
#<math>I</math> is an <math>F</math>
#Therefore, the chance that <math>I</math> is a <math>G</math> is <math>X</math>
 
<math>F</math> is called the "reference class" and <math>G</math> is the "attribute class" and <math>I</math> is the individual object. How is one to choose an appropriate class <math>F</math>?
 
In [[Bayesian statistics]], the problem arises at that of deciding on a [[prior probability]] for the outcome in question (or when considering multiple outcomes, a prior probability distribution).
 
==History==
[[John Venn]] stated in 1876 that "every single thing or event has an indefinite number of properties or attributes observable in it, and might therefore be considered as belonging to an indefinite number of different classes of things", leading to  problems with how to assign probabilities to a single case. He used as an example the probability that John Smith, a consumptive Englishman aged fifty, will live to sixty-one.<ref>J. Venn,''The Logic of Chance'' (2nd ed, 1876), p. 194.</ref>
 
The name "problem of the reference class" was given by [[Hans Reichenbach]], who wrote, "If we are asked to find the probability holding for an individual future event, we must first incorporate the event into a suitable reference class. An individual thing or event may be incorporated in many reference classes, from which different probabilities will result."<ref>H. Reichenbach, ''The Theory of Probability'' (1949), p. 374</ref>
 
There has also been discussion of the reference class problem in philosophy.<ref>A. Hájek, [http://philrsss.anu.edu.au/people-defaults/alanh/papers/rcp_your_problem_too.pdf The Reference Class Problem is Your Problem Too], ''Synthese'' 156 (2007): 185-215.</ref>
 
==Legal applications==
Applying [[Bayesian probability]] in practice involves assessing a [[prior probability]] which is then applied to a [[likelihood function]] and updated through the use of [[Bayes' theorem]]. Suppose we wish to assess the probability of guilt of a defendant in a court case in which DNA (or other probabilistic) evidence is available. We first need to assess the prior probability of guilt of the defendant. We could say that the crime occurred in a city of 1,000,000 people, of whom 15% meet the requirements of being the same sex, age group and approximate description as the perpetrator. That suggests a prior probability of guilt of 1 in 150,000. We could cast the net wider and say that there is, say, a 25% chance that the perpetrator is from out of town, but still from this country, and construct a different prior estimate. We could say that the perpetrator could come from anywhere in the world, and so on.
 
Legal theorists have discussed the reference class problem particularly with reference to the Shonubi case. [[Charles Shonubi]], a Nigerian drug smuggler, was arrested at [[JFK Airport]] on Dec 10, 1991, and convicted of [[heroin]] importation. The severity of his sentence depended not only on the amount of drugs on that trip, but the total amount of drugs he was estimated to have imported on seven previous occasions on which he was not caught. Five separate legal cases debated how that amount should be estimated. In one case, "Shonubi III", the prosecution presented statistical evidence of the amount of drugs found on Nigerian drug smugglers caught at JFK Airport in the period between Shonubi's first and last trips. There has been debate over whether that is the (or a) correct reference class to use, and if so, why.<ref>M. Colyvan, H.M. Regan and S. Ferson, [http://homepage.mac.com/mcolyvan/papers/shonubi.pdf Is it a crime to belong to a reference class?], ''Journal of Political Philosophy'' 9 (2001): 168-181; P. Tillers, [http://lpr.oxfordjournals.org/content/4/1-2/33.abstract?ijkey=szbbQSicpqfFZUo&keytype=ref If wishes were horses: discursive comments on attempts to prevent individuals from being unfairly burdened by their reference classes], ''Law, Probability and Risk'' 4 (2005): 33-49.</ref>
 
Other legal applications involve valuation. For example, houses might be valued using the data in a database of house sales of "similar" houses. To decide on which houses are similar to a given one, one needs to know which features of a house are relevant to price. Number of bathrooms might be relevant, but not the eye color of the owner. It has been argued that such reference class problems can be solved by finding which features are relevant: a feature is relevant to house price if house price [[covariance|covaries]] with it (it affects the likelihood that the house has a higher or lower value), and the ideal reference class for an individual is the set of all instances which share with it all relevant features.<ref>J. Franklin, [http://www.columbialawreview.org/articles/feature-selection-methods-for-solving-the-reference-class-problem-comment-on-edward-k-cheng-a-practical-solution-to-the-reference-class-problem Feature selection methods for solving the reference class problem], ''Columbia Law Review Sidebar'', Mar 2010.</ref>
 
==References==
{{Reflist}}
 
==See also==
*[[Statistical syllogism]]
*[[Reference class forecasting]]
 
[[Category:Bayesian statistics]]
[[Category:Logic and statistics]]

Latest revision as of 21:05, 12 January 2015

Whether you are in the property market seeking residential, commercial, industrial or mixeddevelopment properties. Right here at LNP, we have now all the new property launches which covers the whole of Singapore. Every of the property launch listed here are effectively documented with comprehensive and up-to-date information http://menofpurposekenya.org/?option=com_k2&view=itemlist&task=user&id=43313 & details.

Dennis Wee Group spokesman Lee Sze Teck said those who use up to 60 per cent of their monthly revenue to service their house loans are typically incomes first rate wages and have a very good credit rating. Engineer James Leow, 26, had plans to buy a 5-room resale flat near his dad and mom' place in Ang Mo Kio this yr. This measure will convey some sanity to the entire industrial market," stated Mr Douglas Foo, chief govt of Sakae Sushi, which bought its personal 200,000 sq ft industrial constructing in Paya Lebar iPark in the mid-2000s. More than 10 million sq ft of multi-user industrial area is also expected to go available on the market within the subsequent few years. If they do not comply with this rule, they are going to be hit with a hefty extra tax in the form of the ABSD. Skypark Residences EC

Non-residential buildings and land will continue to be taxed at 10%. The proprietor-occupier tax rates don't apply to non-residential buildings or land even when you've got bought the properties for your own use/ occupation. The brand new tax obligation will hit as a result of the Mortgage Forgiveness Debt Aid Act expires on the finish of the year. The 2007 regulation was handed to save lots of struggling householders from getting whacked twice, first by the sagging housing market and second by the Inside Revenue Service. Its expiration may push extra folks to stay in houses worth less than their mortgages, slowing the housing market's recovery. Balestier / Geylang (D12-14) New Freehold B1 Mild Industrial at Kallang Pudding Three Deaths Linked To Listeria-Tainted Rescolina Ricotta

Some outdated-college physicians nonetheless think that drugs are the one approach to make us wholesome. What in regards to the side effects? Would not it make extra sense to wash up somebody's way of life first and if the health concern persists, then think about medicine? You would suppose it's common sense, however maybe not to all. If you can't already tell, this can be a topic I am very captivated with. There's a latest New England Journal of Medication article that helps us all - including the skeptics about life-style modifications - to see that life-style modifications are in actual fact beneficial for our health. To say that a healthy diet and train life-style is unimportant is completely ludicrous once we as health care practitioners have the job of instituting well being measures for our sufferers.

Singaporeans have traditionally been averse to wealth redistribution, partly due to the concept that focussing on equalising life alternatives is sufficient. When property taxes have been abolished in 2008, Singapore became one of many few nations that doesn't have capital features (together with property) or estate taxes. Consider the concept Singapore wants many rich billionaires to be able to seed and grow companies. This misunderstands the character of entrepreneurship. Henry Ford and Invoice Gates got here from humble origins to construct large corporations. Their descendants, billionaires, have not created anything similar. Significantly better for Singapore to foster a pleasant funding local weather and an open, innovative surroundings. New Launch 2014 in March / April Lush Acres EC

One Balmoral – Ultra High Finish Freehold Condominium To Match Your Status! One Balmoral is a ultra excessive end freehold condominium located at One Balmoral Highway. One Balmoral A development by Hong Leong Holdings Limited, consisting of 91 models in Oceanfront Suites, irresistible pricing for a 946 leasehold property with magnificent sea view. Dreaming of basking and feeling the warmth of pure sunlight is now only a click on away. Oceanfront Suites - Seaside living not wants to remain an unattainable Ang Mo Kio Cluster House is launching tentatively in April 2013. Click right here to register your curiosity for Ang Mo Kio Cluster Home now! Ang Mo Kio Cluster Home is a uncommon freehold strata landed growth along Ang Mo Kio Avenue Scholar's boarding home or hostel

Achievers are all the time the first to check new applied sciences & providers that may assist them increase their sales. When property guru first began, many agents didn't imagine in it until they began hearing other colleagues getting incredible outcomes. Most brokers needs to see proof first, before they dare to take step one in making an attempt. These are sometimes the late comers or late adopters. There is a motive why high achievers are heading the wave or heading the best way. Simply because they try new things forward of others. The rest simply follow after!

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